Identification of Lithuanian international trade risk in beverages

Abstract

Research purpose. The article aims to identify the risk groups arising in foreign trade in the four main groups of processed beverages at a national level. Design / Methodology / Approach. Processed agricultural drinks do not fall into the category of essential food. The article examines four main drink groups: waters (including mineral waters and aerated waters, with additive), beer, wine, and other alcoholics (e.g., spirits, liqueurs, whiskies, rums, gins, vodkas, etc.) beverages. The case of Lithuania is presented. Analysis and assumption of scientific literature and TOPSIS method are used. The study does not aim to assess all risk factors but to identify the groups of risk factors and to rank them according to their importance for each processed beverage sectors supply chain. Findings. Based on the scientific literature analysis, the eight risk groups were identified and were evaluated according to their importance for the beverages supply chain. Experts ranked risk groups taking into account their importance for international processed beverages trade for each product group. The results show that the most important is the Demand risks group for all processed beverages, and the least important is Political risk. The significance of other risk groups for a particular beverage supply chain differs. Supply risks were second in the ‘water with add’ group, while in the ‘other alcohol’ group, it is in fourth place. For the ‘other alcohol’ group, supply risks are less significant. Production risks are one of the most important in the wine trade. Financial risks are one of the most important in the ‘other alcohol’ group. Management and operational risks play an essential role in the beer supply chains. The least significant is three risk groups: Logistical and infrastructural risks, Policy and regulatory risks, Political risks. Originality / Value / Practical implications. The identified risks groups in the four main groups of processed beverages can help shape the country's trade policy, mitigate trade risks, and effectively manage the agricultural trade beverage subsector. Research results can be practically used both for government or business decisions and for the public sector (trade associations).