An algorithm for modelling the impact of the judicial conflict-resolution process on construction investment

Abstract

In this article, the modelling of the judicial conflict-resolution process is considered from a construction investor’s point of view. Such modelling is important for improving the risk management for construction investors and supporting sustainable city development by supporting the development of rules regulating the construction process. Thus, this raises the problem of evaluation of different decisions and selection of the optimal one followed by distribution extraction. First, the example of such a process is analysed and schematically represented. Then, it is formalised as a graph, which is described in the form of a decision graph with cycles. We use some natural problem properties and provide the algorithm to convert this graph into a tree. Then, we propose the algorithm to evaluate profits for different scenarios with estimation of time, which is done by integration of an average daily costs function. Afterwards, the optimisation problem is solved and the optimal investor strategy is obtained—this allows one to extract the construction project profit distribution, which can be used for further analysis by standard risk (and other important information)-evaluation techniques. The overall algorithm complexity is analysed, the computational experiment is performed and conclusions are formulated.