Europos Sąjungos finansinės paramos poveikis Lietuvos ekonominei raidai

Abstract

Straipsnyje nagrinėjama Europos Sąjungos finansinė parama Lietuvai, jos panaudojimo galimybės ir pagrindiniai apskaitos principai. Europos Sąjungos finansinės paramos poveikis šalies ekonominei raidai 2004–2008 m. tiriamas taikant struktūrinį makroekonometrinį modelį. Modeliavimo, pagrįsto keliais scenarijais ir variantais, rezultatai rodo, kad vidutinio laikotarpio Lietuvos ekonominės raidos tendencijos nemažai priklauso nuo Europos Sąjungos skiriamų lėšų panaudojimo. Jeigu šios lėšos ir toliau bus panaudojamos vangiai (pesimistinis prognozės variantas), kitiems veiksniams nekintant, BVP didėjimas 2007–2008 m. sulėtės. Europos Sąjungos paramos lėšų panaudojimui pagerėjus (optimistinis prognozės variantas), šalies ūkio plėtra 2007–2008 m. turėtų paspartėti. Kainos bet kuriuo atveju ir toliau didės.

The focus of this study lies on the impact how these financial flows will effect development of macroeconomic and fiscal variables. The quarterly Bank of Lithuania structural model was applied to calculate impact of EU funds for macroeconomic development. This required a certain decomposition of the EU fund, mainly to current and capital transfers. Methodology of accounting and classification of the EU funds under the Balance of Payments and National accounts framework was presented. From the macro-modelling perspectives, EU flow affects Lithuanian economy mainly through the following channels: 1) private consumptions, 2) government consumptions, 3) other government expenditure, 4) investment. Summarizing the results of the study we may draw the following conclusions. The Financial transfers from the EU funds will be an important stimulus to the growth of the economy. The biggest impact of the EU funds on aggregate demand came from investment and consumptions channels. Noteworthy, the extent of the influence of EU funds on the economy highly depends from the absorption capacity. According official data the absorption of the EU support was rather subdued over the period of 2004–2005 and the beginning of 2006. If this rather low absorption capacity will remain over the medium period (pessimistic variant) then impact of EU funds to growth will be moderate and decreasing. However higher rate of absorption (optimistic variant) would constitute a significant additional stimulus for the economic growth in 2007–2008. The net impact of the EU support on the fiscal balance taking into account the second-round effect from the demand side in general would be positive.