Vilniaus ateities scenarijų sudarymas ir daugiakriterinis vertinimas

Abstract

In this article the author tried to identify the key problems of the city which have to be solved in the first place. For this reason the scenarios making approach is used. Next, the definitions of scenarios are briefly outlined, the variety of scenarios is overviewed and the main scenarios making principles are discussed. The author developed three alternative future scenarios of Vilnius: “the society oriented scenario”, “the economy oriented scenario” and “the environment oriented scenario”. All these scenarios are described by a certain indicators system. The importance of criteria is determined by the questioning of respondents. Using a multiple criteria complex the proportional evaluation method of the evaluation of scenarios is performed. Evaluation results show that the most acceptable is the first, “the society oriented scenario”. In this scenario the dominate subjects are: wages level, unemployment and provision of housing. Implementing the above-mentioned scenario the author suggests: a) to create such economic environment which could be friendly for manufacture, trade and investments; to ensure the provision of proper information to business; b) to stimulate construction of dwelling houses, revitalization and development of unattractive city districts; to develop social housing providing shelter to disadvantaged inhabitants.