Прогнозирование и конкурентноспособность предприятия

Abstract

The report deals with the most frequently applied forecasting methods. When selecting a specific forecasting technique to be applied in a particular situation, one has to take into consideration a considerable number of factors. The most significant ones are cost and accuracy or, in other words, the combination of accuracy and cost that are deemed best by management under specific circumstances. The market conditions force business to constantly experience shortage of data, which is compensated by the results of a forecast. Therefore, properly selected forecasting methods and their adaptation to company's specific conditions are a highly important competitive strategy of the company's top management. The forecasting methods that are recommended for use in business include trend extrapolation; smoothing techniques and regression analysis, as well as interviews of different specialists that are relatively simple and can be implemented with the help of standard software. In order to ensure better accuracy, the authors suggest an integrated forecast developed on the basis of a number of forecasting methods Moreover, continuous demand forecasting helps enterprises to reduce risks due to the dynamic nature and volatility of market conditions.