Lietuvos investuotojų elgsena: iracionalumo apraiškos

Abstract

Straipsnyje nagrinėjama palyginti neseniai pradėta svarstyti, tačiau po praeitą dešimtmetį finansų rinkas užklupusių krizių vis daugiau diskusijų kelianti investuotojų iracionalumo problema. Nors tradicinės ekonomikos ir investicijų valdymo teorijos tebesiremia vadinamąja homo economicus koncepcija, numatančia, kad rinkos dalyviai yra absoliučiai racionalūs, daugėjant realios investuotojų elgsenos tyrimų ši nuostata kelia vis daugiau abejonių. Straipsnyje pateikiama investuotojų iracionalumo sampratos formavimąsi atskleidžiančios literatūros apžvalga ir, remiantis anketinės apklausos rezultatais, nagrinėjama, kiek iracionalumo apraiškos būdingos šalies investuotojams.

In this paper, the results of the Lithuanian investors’ survey, which was performed using a virtual questionnaire platform, are examined. Special attention is paid to determining what part of surveyed investors potentially have irrational investment expectations and are subject to key cognitive biases that might indicate irrationality manifestations. By looking into the expectations area, we can conclude that surveyed investors are dominated by moderate investors, who expect a 4–8 per cent annual return on their investments. Attention must be paid to the fact that more than a quarter of investors expect to generate a 12 per cent or higher annual return, which is a much higher rate than studies with investors’ real returns suggest. Analysis of some key irrationality-causing cognitive biases also showed that a significant part of surveyed investors exhibit signs of imperfect rationality. It is interesting that, based on the research findings, we can also state that a significant part of surveyed participants, in evaluating their opinions about personal investment performance, show signs of pessimism. We also conclude that more than half of surveyed investors might be affected by the illusion of control.