Forecasting the demand for blue-collar workers in the construction sector in 2020: the case of Lithuania

Abstract

After 2020 all new buildings must be energy efficient, which means that the construction industry workforce must be prepared and up-skilled. Formal and informal continuing education must respond to these changes, which means the curriculum needs to be updated and supplemented with the necessary knowledge and skills. This article provides the forecasts for blue-collar worker demand by 2020 in the construction industry and the number of construction workers who should be up-skilled or have extra training to be able to build energy efficient buildings and to install the renewable energy systems. The need for blue-collar workers in the construction sector up to the year 2020 was estimated by the use of mathematical models and expert evaluation, as well as taking into account the Lithuanian economic growth forecasts for the year 2020, trends of employment changes in the construction sector, the impact of EU support to the national economy and other factors having significant impact on employment in the construction sector.