Adaptyvinio eksponentinio modelio panaudojimas analizuoti Ignalinos AE geodinaminio poligono niveliavimo rezultatus

Abstract

Earth crust vertical movements are complex natural processes. Some differential smaller shape movements and local bench marks instability could come out in a background of larger shapes movement. The components of these earth crust vertical movements are adding up and their resultant frequently has characteristics of non-stacionar random process. That was noticed by analyzing results of Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant geodinamic polygon levelling results. The determination of earth crust vertical movements regularity and identification of their zones of characteristic changes is possible by applying mathematical statistic methods of investigation. Methodics of adaptyve exponent model usage is suggested for improvement of sensuality and reliability of earth crust vertical movements analysie by method of accumuliative sum. Earth crust large shapes vertical movement resultants are eliminated by using adaptive exponent model. Characteristics of smaller shape earth surface movement are determined by applying method of accumulative sum analysie for deflections from exponent model. The methodics of analyze suggested was used for investigation of earth crust vertical movements in the northern part of Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant geodynamic polygon. Changes of vertical movements places were identified more accurately by using suggested methodics.