Analysis of Turkish residential construction market dynamics for the periods of 2010-2015, 2015-2019, and projections for the future

Abstract

The Turkish residential market supported by macro-economic developments is of great importance for the country's economy and the construction industry. The main purpose of this study is to analyze the Turkish residential construction market dynamics, especially in terms of price-cost and supply-demand regimes and conduct future projections. For this purpose, analysis of construction cost and residential price indexes, total and mortgaged residential sales, and construction and occupancy permits were evaluated utilizing institutional data. In addition, positive and negative effects of the changes in the residential prices in the macro scale were examined. After, conducting the residential price and cost change analysis for between 2010-2023, future stock volume and residential market projections were carried out. As a result of the analysis, we can divide the residential market into 3 periods: positive development period between 2010 and 2015, the recession period from 2015 to 2019, and the period after 2020. In the projection, depending on the supply contraction and the results of demand changes, price and cost increases, the current residential stock volume will reach its lowest level by 2023. Following this, the last period is expected to reach a more balanced residential market shaped by need-based purchases rather than individual investments.