Prospective MADM and sensitivity analysis of the experts based on Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

Abstract

“Multiple Attribute Decision Making (MADM)” is an expert based field which is working based on real data and experts’ opinions. So many studies have been doing based on MADM methods which they usually use qualitative data based on experts’ ideas. Decisions based on the experts’ opinion shall be carefully designed to cope the real problems uncertainty. This uncertainty will be even more intricate if combining the problem with the ambiguity of the future study. Prospective MADM is a future based type of MADM field which is concentrating on decision making and policy making about the future. Prospective MADM (PMADM) can have both explorative and descriptive paradigms in the studies but it will more useful to be applied for strategic planning. In this regard, experts’ role would be even more challenging because one/some possible future/ futures will be partially designed based on their opinions. Future and prediction always complicates the decision environment, especially methodologies founded on experts’ judgement. Considering experts’ preferences, attitude, and background, they may be a major source of inaccurate results. Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) is well-known “Futures Studies” method which is qualitative and usually is supporting other methods such as “Backcasting” and “Scenario Planning”. CLA has a deep point of view to the subjects to support a future with all those changes which are necessary for the main goal/goals. In this study, this idea will be proposed that CLA can be added to PMADM outline to decrease the risk of unsuitable decisions for the future and for this aim a case study about energy and CO2 consumption in policy making level proposed and a hybrid MADM method based on BWM-CoCoSo applied in the PMADM outline for the procedure.