Investigation of factors that have affected the outcomes of road traffic accidents on Lithuanian roads

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the possibility for predicting the outcome of a road traffic accident concerning the traffic environment, personal traits of the traffic participant and the vehicle, i.e. aiming to answer the question whether specific values of the factors analysed to increase the likelihood of a fatal accident. The logistic regression model that allows identifying the relationship between the dependent and independent variables were used in the research. Other methods for describing and analysing categorical variables were also used alongside the logistic regression. When analysing the results, it was recognised that the odds ratio above 1 shows a higher likelihood for a representative of the category in question to be involved in a fatal accident compared to a representative of the base category. Odds ratios of likelihoods for calculation of the road traffic accident types show that the likelihood of a fatal accident is statistically significant affected by rollovers or driving into obstacles, compared to vehicular collisions. When summarising the results, it was stated that most of the factors researched have an impact on the outcome of a road traffic accident. The influence of some factors has a higher probability of resulting in a fatal accident as compared to other factors.