Decomposition of the effects of ageing population and migration on labour force

Abstract

Ageing is a long-term trend in Europe that started a few decades ago; it causes a number of economic and social problems. The paper aims to evaluate the effects of population ageing and migration on the changes of population and labour force (LF) size as well as the structure of the EU member states, using the decomposition method. We identified how the LF has changed due to the changes of the LF activity level and population volume and then we decomposed influence via demographic changes and migration. The analysis revealed that LF increased in 13 analysed countries over the period 20132017, with significant increases in Germany, Italy, Hungary, Sweden and France. Migration compensated the negative demographic effect on the LF in Germany, Sweden and Denmark. However, migration negatively influenced LF in eight countries, mostly in Spain and Poland, since the net migration was negative. Nevertheless, promoting immigration could help prevent LF shortage issue as well as population ageing.