Towards efficient policy making: forecasts of vulnerability to external global threats

Abstract

Each country has to be able to develop efficient economic policy, facilitating sustainable economic development of national economy. In order to devise such policy, development patterns of a country has to be known, external threats indicated and various scenarios of their impact has to be foreseen, their impact forecasted and discussed. Alas, in contemporary environment in conditions of globalization predicting of development peculiarities and external factors’ impact becomes especially urgent issue. Presented paper is devoted to discussion about predicted development selected national economies with account of threats caused by global environment. Economic indicators of Lithuania and Germany forested for period of three years, estimated, are being analyzed. The following methodology is applied. At first main macroeconomic indicators, such as real GDP growth, inflation, interest rates and unemployment ceteris paribus forecasted until year 2022 will be compared. The second, external threats will be selected and considered. Forecasted impact of indicated threats on real GDP growth of Lithuania and Germany will be discussed; source of employed data: database Passport, provided by Euromonitor International Company and powered by Clarivate Analytics (data are provided for research purposes for subscribed users). Change of real GDP growth in Lithuania and Germany under indicated threats pressure after one year period and three years period is juxtaposed. The findings suggest insights about development patterns of small comparatively less developed open economy and big well developed country belonging to the same economic union. Findings are instrumental for devising national economic policies enhancing resilience of national economies to external (global) threats.