Leaps in cardiovascular diseases after a decrease of hard cosmic ray flux and atmospheric pressure in Vilnius city in 2004–2007

Abstract

The prognostic relationship between a decrease of hard cosmic ray flux (HCRF) and subsequent leaps in cardiovascular disease (CVD) occurrence within 1–3 days is well known. The influence of meteorological situations on human health is also known. However, no correlation was found between a simultaneous decrease of HCRF and atmospheric pressure and the leaps of CVD on some days. For the analysis of a prognostic connection between these parameters, empirical criteria have been put forward. To achieve effective results from analysis, the criteria of a continuous decrease of HCRF to 200 impulses or more within 4 h and of atmospheric pressure by 2 mmHg or more were used. CVD leaps were considered real when their number increased by 10% or more in comparison with the average monthly value. The highest prognostic correlation between HCRF decrease and CVD leaps within 1–2 days was from 64 to 76%. The correlation within 2–3 days was lower. The correlation between atmospheric pressure decrease and leaps of CVD in 1–2 days and on the same day was 25–44%. It means that, while studying the meteorological effects on human organisms, other parameters such as temperature, humidity, wind velocity, etc. should also be taken into account. An essential role in reducing the prognostic accuracy of CVD leaps by a decrease of HCRF relates to the human factor.