Demographic forecasts using the game theory

Abstract

This paper offers certain predictions concerning the demographic population of the cities Vilnius and Olsztyn. The authors used a method of analyzing and synthesizing data sources, and comparing the actual data with the forecast between the years 1997–2014. Each prediction was prepared in connection with its use in various areas of life, particularly for all studies involving spatial planning. The data collected on the basis of the forecasts were used by spatial planners to devise strategies for local development at the city, municipality, and provincial levels. In this sense, they created basic documents for the sustainable planning of space. The process of forecasting is a difficult and complex issue, and its accuracy determines both the choice of methods and the quality of the output. Our study sets out predictions concerning the demographic processes over the coming years in the two cities mentioned. Given that all long-range forecasts are characterized by high risk, especially taking into account the unstable political situation in Europe, the steadily deteriorating situation in the labor market and rising social discontent are of relevance, as they are causing the ongoing dynamics of the population to change, making statistical errors more likely and more serious. This has meant that organizations like Poland’s Central Statistical Office, Eurostat, and the United Nations have to adjust their demographic projections at least every two years, and the methods for making demographic forecasts which are used by governmental institutions have proven to be less than satisfactory. The main purpose of the article, therefore, is to present the authors’ method of making demographic projections by using elements of game theory. The results obtained in this method were compared with the results of the forecasting methods currently used by the governments of Poland and Lithuania. The developed method, based on the same input data and analogous coefficients, brings more probable results