Probabilistic reliability prediction of existing materials, components and members

Abstract

An effect of service and proof actions on probabilistic reliability (serviceability, safety and durability) of materials and components of existing enclosure and bearing members is under consideration. Time-dependent models for reliability assessment of materials, components and members under sustained variable and multicycle actions are presented. Revised reliability indices of existing materials, components and members exposed to service permanent and variable actions are discussed. It is recommended to assess the long-term reliability index of materials, components and members taking into account the effect of latent defects. Truncated probability distributions of physical - mechanical resistances of materials and components and an effect of their latent defects on reliability index assessment are taken into account. Methodological peculiarities of durability prediction of building components and avoiding unfounded premature repairs or replacements are analysed. The applied illustration of the presented method on the probabilistic reliability prediction of deteriorating concrete covers is demonstrated.