Статистические имитационные прогнозные модели оценок износа бандажей колесных пар локомотивов

Abstract

The technical state of locomotives is one of the bases of reliability and stafety of the motion of rolling stock, and the decrease of the coefficient of wear of pair of wheels of locomotives considerably reduces the operating costs of rail transport. The lubricant of the crests of pair of wheels contributes to everything. The numerous results of measurements made it possible to create the probabilistic forecast models of the estimations of the coefficient of wear of bandages and crests of pair of wheels, and the application of a method of statistical imitation simulation separates from the acceptable forecast models to the most resistent to the possible random fluctuations of variables.