The future of sustainable development in some Baltic states by application of the MOORA method

Abstract

Does welfare economy with market economy on the one side and sustainable development on the other go together with one another? Therefore, using the MOORA method, simulations are made, about the future (2006-2012) of two selected countries, namely Lithuania compared to Poland. For that purpose, welfare economy and sustainable development are treated separately as two different scenarios. A welfare economy is characterized by: the inflation percentage, the size of the public debt, the deficit of the public budget, the unemployment level, productivity and economic growth and an eventual deficit on the balance of payments, current account. Sustainable development tries to combine this economic progress with quality of life. However, sustainable development comes in conflict with the increase in productivity, an important reason of human stress in industrialized countries. Whereas economic growth and also the EMU norms are maintained, sustainable development is further characterized by the human aspirations of higher salaries opposite to more leisure time. Finally, pollution is considered by measurement of energy consumption and C02 emission or by a dimensionless number for the other pollutants. Three alternative solutions are maintained: EMU, EEU and Secession. Despite some amazing conclusions could be drawn, it was only the intention to illustrate the usefulness of a method. Thorough research would still be further necessary in order to provide a working tool for policy makers.