Model of Lithuanian macroeconomic indicators

Abstract

Macroeconometric models are applied for analysing of economical policy, forecastling of main indicators, and for controlling of economical theory occurrence in concrete situations. There are designed many models in Lithuania, but there is no model, which allows to analyse changing of separate economy indicators effect for country economic processes. Model consisting production, price, trade, income and employment blocs will be presented in Conference. Since Lithuania is planning to join Euro zone, it is very important to simulate consumer price changes at this moment. Equations of Price block in model allow to estimate short-term forecasts and analyze different scenario which enable to measure country inflation influenced by prices changes in separate economy sectors. Balance, econometric models and input-output tables are used in this work. Accuracy and stability of models ware tested. One type of the production function is used for modeling of production indicators. Capital, investments, trade and labour influence to volumes of separate activities were analysed. Changes of indicators in constant previous year prices are measured by chain-linking method and using adequate deflators.