Analysis and choice of energy generation technologies: the multiple criteria assessment on the case study of Lithuania

Abstract

Increasing fossil fuel prices and growing depend nce on energy imports will encourage many countries to review their development strategy and pl ns for energy. Choice of the appropriate solution to be applied within energy sector is a complicated problem: great number of alternatives and criteria shall be analyzed and evaluated paying additional attention to the controversial social, economic, technological and environmental factors. Since the Pareto optimal solution does not exist, the most appropriate solution can be made upon the evaluation of generality of conditions and provisions in the way of negotiations. The paper presents the process of choice of Lithuania's energy generation technologies, which has been solved using multiple criteria mathematical methods such as AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and ARAS (Additive Ratio Assessment method). The derived results show that in case of Lithuania it is viable to consider further development of the nuclear power generation capacity. Among the energy generation technologies related to renewable energy sources a clear priority is assigned to biomass technologies. The research results discussed in the article suggest that assessment and choice of energy generation technologies using multiple criteria methods is a good way to agregate the criteria of performance, economic expedience and ecological integrity with the criteria of technological innovativeness, socially-responsible operation and sustainable development.