Approach modelling of constant interfailure process of renewal multi-unit fleet

Abstract

While railway companies operate rolling-stock, a substantial part of its expenses goes to maintenance and repair. However, the amount of repair works is directly proportional to the average age of a rolling-stock fleet or its reliability. When renewal an existing fleet of a few dozen rolling-stocks, the installation of the new vehicles reduces the overall failure amount of the fleet proportionally to the number of acquired vehicles. This article provides a concept for creating the model of a passenger rollingstock's failure intensity according to the mileage. According to this model, a vehicle fleet renewal algorithm can be created and used in order to limit the fluctuation of the fleet's average failure intensity as much as possible and to achieve the most accurate correlation between the number of failures and the fleet's average mileage. Thus a railway company has an opportunity to avoid the unplanned expenses for repairing the vehicles during the unforeseen failure peaks. The SPLINE method is proposed in order to indicate the vehicle failure flow's dependency on the vehicle mileage. After using this method to indicate the variation of the fleet's constant interfailure according to the mileage, the fleet's failure intensity can be modelled according to the algorithm of installing the acquired vehicles for operation.