The research on the impact of the changes of commodity price level in the world commodity exchanges on variation of general price level

Abstract

The purpose of the paper is to investigate the influence of changes of commodity price level in the world commodity exchanges on variation of general price level index in Lithuania. Object of the research is commodity price level in the world commodity exchanges. The methodology applied is following: study of the recent scientific literature, collection and analysis of statistical data, correlation regression analysis. The conclusion can be made that variation of general price level in Lithuania depends on changes of commodity prices in world commodity exchanges, mostly from the prices of aluminium, cocoa, coal and oil. Regression function made with analysed commodities is adequate to real situation and chosen variables X explain the 64% of inflation variability and 36% are explained by o ther factors. The results show that the determinate regression function could be practically used to forecast the dependence of inflation rate on the particular factors .