Effects of overall satisfaction with PV Systems and subsidy policy on energy security for rooftop buildings using system dynamics

Abstract

A significant amount of the electricity needed to operate units of residential buildings can be generated from rooftop PV systems. This study developed system dynamics models to assess the impact of the overall satisfaction and subsidy policy with photovoltaic (PV) products for rooftops of residential buildings and households on energy security. The model was run by simulation from the year 2022 until 2035. Energy security was predicted. Results showed that at an overall satisfaction level and a subsidy proportion of 42% and 10%, the number of PV installations (generated PV power) in the year 2035 will reach 13.64 MW (9.01 GWh) and 26.99 GW (15.57 TWh), respectively. The cumulative subsidy cost reached 1.154 billion USD. In conclusion, manufacturers and suppliers of PV systems as well as the decision-makers in the energy sector can utilize the developed model as an assessment tool for improvement decisions to promote rooftop PV installations and secure sufficient renewable solar energy to meet the increasing annual energy demands.