Modelling the ranking of Lithuanian railways level crossing by safety level

Abstract

The article describes the assessment of Lithuanian railway level crossing safety. The statistical analysis of the railway accidents in Lithuania and abroad in recent years has shown that about 30% of all transport accidents in railway occur at railway level crossings. The safety assessment of the country's crossings is carried out considering these technical criteria: according to the category of crossing, visibility, by the intensity of the movement of trains and road vehicle, by the width of the railway crossing and by the maximum speed of trains. Applying the binary model of logistic regression, the probability of accidents at the 337 railway crossings of the country was calculated. Depending on the degree of risk or the probability of accident, the country's railway crossings are ranked. The most dangerous crossings of four country’s regions were identified. Finally, the main conclusions and recommendations are presented.