Providences and projections regarding the prognostication of railway transport volumes from a long - term perspective

Abstract

Seeking to produce long-term forecasts of rail freight volumes, it is necessary to carry out an analysis of the process of freight activity and to form projections on perspectives of the internal market and external effects. Since the economic crisis is still having an influence on the economical context of whole of Lithuania, neither a national long-term economic development strategy nor assumptions about the prospective development of the social sphere have been prepared. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one of the most important macroeconomic measures used in assessing the level of national development. This indicator is also used in forecasting freight flow volumes on Lithuanian railway transport. The conditions for the economic recovery of Lithuania and the other Baltic States are linked with global and international economical indicators. The recovery of the national economy is possible only in the context of a global economic upturn which will include the recovery of Lithuania's basic export partners; the EU countries, Russia, Belarus and other international trade partners. Another necessary condition is the recovery of national economic competitiveness. The Lithuanian Railway Company has sufficient potential to develop transport freight flows on the main European transport corridors through the territory of Lithuania. Major rail freight transportation links are connected to to the cargo loading activities of Klaipeda State Seaport and Kaliningrad commercial seaport, which are often used to export and import materials and the main production of Lithuanian industrial enterprises. Therefore the local contribution to internal transportation is becoming more important: local industries are exporting larger amounts of production to foreign countries.