Analysis of accident prediction feasibility on the roads of Lithuania

Abstract

Analysis of the distribution of fatal and injury accidents on the roads of Lithuania showed that the accidents are frequently repeated at the same locations. Having calculated accident indices, the black spots and high-accident locations are identified, then the causes of accidents are analyzed and the appropriate road safety improvement measures shall be taken to eliminate locations of accident concentration. Implementation of road safety improvement measures must give benefit to the public. In the course of economic evaluation of safety measures planned to be implemented, the impact and the obtained economic benefit of each measure is determined. At present, Lithuania uses methodology for the assessment of the effect of safety measures intended for the elimination of solely the existing black spots, however, this methodology cannot be applied for accident prediction and for the prevention of high-accident locations on the newly built and reconstructed road sections. In order to predict safety situation on the newly built and reconstructed road sections and to prevent them from the occurrence of black spots it is necessary to make mathematical modelling of safety situation of high-accident locations and black spots using the historical accident data. The article gives accident modelling, carried out based on 1997– 2008 data on fatal and injury accidents on the main roads, which enabled to construct mathematical models for the optimum selection of preventive measures.