Nuokrypio nuo ilgalaikės gamybos apimties tendencijos vertinimas
Santrauka
The output gap, defined as actual less potential output, is an importatnt variable in its own right and as an indicator of incipient changes in inflation. This paper reviews four mathods of estimating it for Lithuanian GDP data, including linar time trends, Hodrick- Prescott (HP) filter trends, band- Pass (BP) filter trends and a production function model. Estimates of the gap vary with the method used and are sensitive to changes in model specification. While gap estimates at any particular point in time are imprecise, the broad profile of the gap is similar across the range of methods examinated.