Advanced intention and applicability features of the double trump decision management model in exchange market

Abstract

The main goal of the paper is to reveal the content of the so-called "double trump" decision management model in the global currency market and to present the possibilities and results of its practical application. This model is developed on the basis of the author's earlier proposed model of adequate investment portfolio decision reliability assessment; and it was experimentally implemented with the aid of a special currency rate change forecasting system. The investigation was carried out using real FOREX data (see author's website). The paper broadens the discussion about financial market efficiency by testing market efficiency theory not through an attempt to defeat the market, but through proving market nonhomogeneity evidence, i.e. proving that there are always non-efficiency shoals in the market, when it is possible to elaborate a decision strategy allowing an advantage over the real market decisions over a rather long period of time. The pragmatic aim of the research is to present the possibilities and means of decision management in the currency market strategies advantageous over particular market decisions in general. Continuous development and practical use of such strategies should help in forming market intelligence.