The modelling of roof installation projects using decision trees and the AHP method

Abstract

In this work, the process of roofing projects’ execution is considered. The proper analysis of this process is important to optimise the behaviour of a project’s participants and to perform risk evaluation. The main result of this work is methodology, which can be used to optimise a project owner’s decisions and potentially can be applied for risk control or integrated into expert systems. This methodology includes the application of a decision tree and AHP (analytic hierarchy process) method to perform the modelling for roof installation project selection. In the proposed approach, a decision tree describes the process with nodes representing the states of a project. The tree includes the decision on whether to sell the project results or not, which requires the estimation of the subjective opinion of the project owner. These subjective values are used in the decision tree leaves. We propose to perform this estimation with the AHP method and describe how to do it in this paper. A particular example was considered. The proposed methodology was applied to that case, and all details of the process and results are provided. Using the proposed methodology, the adapted version of a specific, current situation model of project participants’ behaviours can be formed, allowing one to make the most efficient decisions in the light of the existing constraints. The application of results can increase the investor protection and contribute to the general sustainability of investments.