Transport modelling during preparation of general plans in big cities: reasons and challenges

Abstract

Rapidly growing mobility of people in European cities attaches greater importance to the sustainable development concept. The dynamics of European cities are however different. Cites such as Lithuanian, Slovakian and Polish ones will rapidly increase traffic flows and car ownership at fast pace. Also in most of Western Europe, even if at lower rates, private mobility is increasing. In some cities, however, car use and car ownership are finally decreasing, also thanks to policies implemented. Of course, an increase of traffic flows poses problems in terms of street space, pollution and live-ability of cities. Sustainable integration of all kinds of transport into the urban development process is one of the most effective actions in the hands of city planners. The coordination between the planning of residential and business development areas and the expansion of public transport and its hierarchical integration is however a difficult but necessary exercise. Transport modelling tools, in particular, need important advancements to integrate transport and land use in simulations. This article analyses the main challenges in the use of transport models to support the construction of city plans by means of two case studies of Milan and Vilnius. The analysis deals both with traditional aspects, such as the proper simulation of multimodal choices, the level of detail of zoning, the issues associated to the simulation of traffic management policies. Then, we will focus on two aspects still open: the integration of transport modelling and economic assessment or ranking of actions, and the inclusion of land use changes in the modelling.