Basel III: countercyclical capital buffer proposalthe case of Baltics

Abstract

The objective of countercyclical capital buffer is to encourage banks to build up buffers in good times that can be drawn down in bad times. The aim of the report is to assess such decisions by banks derived from two approaches. The approaches are the aggregate credit-to-GDP ratio as well as credit growth. The approaches are implemented for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania for the time period 2000–2012. The report compares two approaches and analyses their relevance to the Baltic states by testing the correlation between a growth in studied variables and a growth of corresponding gaps. Methods used in the empirical part of the report are econometric analysis as well as economic analysis, development indicators, relative and absolute indicators and other methods. The research outcome is a cross-Baltic comparison of two alternative approaches to establish or release a countercyclical capital buffer by banks and their implications for each Baltic country.