Energy load forecasting model for integrated urban energy planning

Abstract

Nearly 75 % of the world’s energy is consumed in urban areas and it is expected that together with the cities expansion it will grow rapidly in the future. Therefore the energy management in the urban areas is crucial in the context of depleting fossil fuels, climate change, energy supply security and energy poverty. Energy load forecasting is essential for the sustainable energy supply management. Planning of the energy systems starts at the stage of urban spatial planning when only limited data are available, most often those are only restrictions on building density and nature of possible land use. Existing practise of energy demand evaluation at the stage of urban spatial planning lacks integration of different energy forms and different evaluation approaches. Currently applied methodologies demonstrate significant approach differences when evaluating electricity and heat loads. The practise to calculate only peak and annual demand is insufficient. They should be expanded and incorporate seasonal or even hourly energy load profiles. The model has been developed to address the needs for integrated energy load forecasting at urban scale. This model is designed to forecast urban scale heat, electricity and natural gas load in residential building areas. Following the analysis of different existing energy forecasting methods, end-use energy load forecasting approach was incorporated into the model. Created model is based on Lithuanian conditions, but it can be easily adjusted to other conditions as well. The paper describes the model and possibilities of further improvement of integrated urban energy planning.