Strategic analysis of Vilnius airport’s growth trajectory and noise regulation compliance

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of future events is essential for managing and optimizing airport activities, facilitating the minimization of adverse environmental impacts. The availability of detailed information about yearly aircraft movements at Vilnius City International Airport (VNO) offers an opportunity to create various scenarios that projects the growth patterns within airport and aviation industry in general. This scientific research paper explores the temporal trajectory of VNO with a focus on forecasting its evolution towards reaching major airport status of 50 000 aircraft movements per year. The study employs quantitative method in forecasting data with cycling origin using the ratio to moving average method also known as Time Series Method (TSM). Calculations are done by Microsoft Excel software with which regression trend line is obtained. Two various scenarios are projected: the continuous use of Terminal 1 (T1) and the introduction of new Terminal 2 (T2). Forecast show that continuous use of T1 will reach threshold of 50 000 flights per year by end of 4th quarter of 2025. For T2 it is projected that 53 110 flights will be done at VNO at the end of the same year T2 is projected to become operational: 2026 4th quarter. These findings underscore the necessity of strategic planning and infrastructure development to accommodate future growth and increase airport efficiency in line with growing demands.

Tikslus ateities įvykių prognozavimas yra būtinas siekiant valdyti oro uostų veiklą ir mažinti jos neigiamą poveikį aplinkai. Taikant kiekybinius metodus atliktas tyrimas leidžia prognozuoti VNO plėtros trajektoriją siekiant įgyti didelio oro uosto statusą ir viršyti 50 000 skrydžių per metus. Modeliuojami du scenarijai: tik esamo pirmojo terminalo (T1) naudojimas ir naujo antrojo terminalo (T2) atidarymo įtaka. Prognozės rodo, kad 2025 metų ketvirtą ketvirtį T1 pasieks 50 000 skrydžių ribą, o T2 galėtų pasiekti 53 110 skrydžių kiekį iki 2026 metų ketvirto ketvirčio, t. y. planuojamo T2 atidarymo. Straipsnis aktualus, nes didesnio pralaidumo oro uostai sukelia daugiau triukšmo, todėl jiems reikalingas griežtesnis triukšmo reguliavimas dėl galimo didesnio poveikio aplinkinėms bendruomenėms ir aplinkai.