Technology interaction during cyclic conditions

Abstract

This paper is an extension of some previous research on the simulation of three technologies that interact during competitive business conditions. The research purpose of this paper is to explore the competitive behaviour of technologies that may occur under cyclic conditions. In this research technology is considered to be the result of innovation that is a rate dependent process. The research method includes a brief exploratory literature review covering aspects of system dynamics and technology growth in systems management is presented. The effects of cyclical changes on technology growth in business are highlighted. In this paper three technologies are considered as a coupled system with the interacting dynamics being modelled using the Lotka-Volterra system of differential equations. The research method also includes a system dynamics simulation approach to explore some cyclic effects possibly caused by seasonal behaviour of a modified version of the three technology system is attempted. Some rather unexpected results caused by small forced cyclical changes are presented indicating the possibility of intermittent near demise of technologies. The uncertainty in forced cyclical influences on technology is addressed in the results of this research using a Monte Carlo multivariate simulation technique and a system dynamics approach as part of the research method. Specifically the uncertainty in the cyclic forced amplitudes is addressed in the system dynamics simulation results. The research method is as a result exploratory and case based and has been shown previously to be especially useful early on in research.