Relationship between the dynamics of refugees from Ukraine and the volatility of tourism stocks: a time-frequency analysis

Abstract

The Russia-Ukraine war has determined the reconfiguration of the tourism industry at the global level. This study explores the link between refugees from Ukraine and tourism stocks listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange. The analysed period was between 01.01.2022 and 31.12.2022 to capture the extent of the studied phenomenon. The time series were processed by wavelet analysis. The main results are: i) there is a link between the dynamics of refugees in Ukraine and the volatility of tourism stocks; ii) volatility was significant in the first weeks after the start of the conflict in most of the analysed companies; iii) the highest volatility was recorded in companies located near the Ukraine border; iv) in 2023, the volatility generated by refugees from Ukraine is insignificant.