Forecasting costs of cyber attacks using estimation the Global Cost Of Cyber Risk Calculator V 1.2

Abstract

Purpose – due to the constant increase of cyber-attacks not only the measures of identifying and controlling cyber risks are created, but also the methods of estimating possible cyber-attacks financial costs should be developed to increase business preparedness. The purpose of this research is to forecast potential costs of cyber-attacks in Baltic countries. Research methodology – to achieve the aim of the article and prepare a prognosis of possible cyber-attacks costs the Estimation the Global Costs of Cyber Risk Calculator V 1.2 tool was used. Findings – estimated costs of cyber-attacks in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are highest in the public business and services sector and also in the defense sector. According to conducted calculations the costs of cyber-attacks in Lithuania will reach 1% of GDP of Lithuania by 2026. Research limitations – in this research the costs of cyber-attacks are estimated regarding industries of business but not excluding specific cyber threats. Therefore, for the future research possibilities could be the analyses of specific cyber risks and their impact to various business sectors. Practical implications – the results of the research may be useful in practical approach for preparing the risk management tools, evaluating possible damage and effect of cyber-attacks to business, also increasing preparedness level and business resilience. Originality/Value – this estimation model has been not used to evaluate and discuss cyber-risks costs in Lithuania among previous researches, therefore the topic and conducted results are original and significantly relevant for further analyses of cyber security issues in Lithuania.