Peculiarities of passenger flows forecast on the reduced market conditions

Abstract

The basic aim of public transport operator - National railway company – to provide passenger transportation services on the territory of network accessibility areas, also to enlarge volumes of passenger transportation and the quality of services necessary to satisfy needs of publicity and to reduce working loss. Accomplished overhaul of railway transport strategy and economic analysis of present passenger transportation activity allow defining features related to the selection of forecasting methods. Important socio-economic indicators selected as a frame for railway passenger transportation forecasts were influenced by present statistic data and indicator reliability during the period of economic crisis. Both economic and social factors have influence on passenger demand. Such indicators as GDP, average wages, level of automobilization, domestic income and expenditures, demographical indicators, changes on urban territories, economic changes, crisis cycle and other were evaluated. The forecasts on passenger volumes transported by trains and routes of JC Lithuanian Railway are prepared for local and international transportations. The priority is given to satisfaction of passenger market demands offering qualitative and quantitative balanced services. The forecasts on passenger transportation demand are prepared according to three scenarios of basic passenger transportation supply.