Evolution of European Air Traffic from 2022 Onwards

Abstract

The war in Ukraine caused by Russian Federation military invasion on February 24, 2022, had a significant impact on configuration of airspace used by civil aviation for global air transportation. Restricted flight regions caused a significant increase in the index of airplane trajectory inefficiency that is a result of airplane trajectory re-planning to avoid entering the risky airspace. Closing full Ukrainian airspace led to the relocation of a portion of Ukrainian cargo and passenger traffic to airports in neighboring countries. Configuration of dangerous airspace directly affected global transportation flows between Europe, North America, and Asian destinations. In this paper, the evolution of air traffic caused by the war in Ukraine has been studied. Statistical analysis of European airport’s load is used to get estimation of additional traffic there since 2022. An index of monthly traffic increase is used to calculate traffic fluctuation. Also, statistical analysis of airplane trajectories with high values of trajectory inefficiency index has been used to estimate close airspace influence on particular flight connections.